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Beijing has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japanese territory as China escalates tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.