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It was 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were a symptom or a cause of the side's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, though, the sideline response was far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have piled up.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened against United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.